NOAA still predicts active hurricane season despite slow start
MOUNT PLEASANT, S.C. (WCBD) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday it still anticipated an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season despite seeing only three named storms as of the beginning of August.
NOAA provided its mid-season update provided by the Climate Prediction Center, which is a division of the National Weather Service.
But while forecasters slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal season from 65% issued in May to 60%, those changes are still above standard. “The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season,” NOAA said.
“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”
NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which spans the six-month hurricane season, ending on November 30, calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).
Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence.
“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”
With only three named storms so far – none of which became a hurricane – in the Atlantic basin. In an average season, 14 named storms are often produced, of which seven become hurricanes, and three are major.
“This outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast,” said NOAA. “Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.”
Forecasters said La Niña conditions will continue through the season and could allow for the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate or slightly enhance hurricane activity, according to NOAA.
Saharan dust has been a contributing factor to the slow start to the season.
The next named storm would be called Danielle.
